Bahama Times

Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Ukraine-Russia-USA-UK: The good reason and the real reason

Ukraine-Russia-USA-UK: The good reason and the real reason

A person has two reasons for doing something: a good reason and the real reason. Attacking Russia on the occupation of Ukraine is probably a baseless reason but certainly a good one. The real reasons are more likely Biden's and Johnson's desperate need to rise off the bottom of the collapse of public confidence in their governments, and the urgent need for the US and UK oil companies to destroy Russia's and Germany's Nord Stream 2 project at any cost.
The justification for the attack of the United States and Britain against Russia: "it's the economy, stupid" - not Ukraine.

Biden and Johnson are suffering from a complete collapse of public trust in their governments, and presiding over bubble economies that are about to explode. They need to find an external enemy - anyone - to wage war on in order to unite their people through hatred of the "other", instead of seeing them join forces under the banner of lack of trust in their government.

The same American and British oil companies that needed the fake wars against Iraq and Libya to get even richer now need a war against the Nord Stream 2 venture that threatens to deprive them of the possibility of milking vast profits from Germany and the rest of Europe.

Given the global geopolitical considerations that should be driving the Western response to Russia's posturing, it becomes clear that Biden's and Johnson's respective stances against Russia are actually completely self-serving. They do not really care about Ukraine.

Johnson's grand-standing fly-in diplomacy is designed to distract the British public's attention from the criminal offenses he and his government committed during the Covid-19 lockdowns. Biden's superficial pontificating allows him to unite the totally-divided American public by offering them, once again, free supplies of the drug that the USA (and its side-kick the UK) is addicted to: war.

Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya (not including the Vietnam catastrophe or the Latin American misadventures).

War, war, war.

Most normal people would understand and agree that Putin has no right to occupy Ukraine. This is clear, reasonable and has the support of a global consensus (even China is cautious about backing this dodgy land-grab). If Putin authorizes a full invasion, the whole world must come together and protect Ukraine's sovereignty.

However, every sensible person understands that Biden's and Johnson's declarations that "they know for sure" that Putin will “occupy”(!) Ukraine on Tuesday, two weeks ago, or Wednesday, a week ago, is a routine but classic deception used by the master crooks who run our political systems. Just another grand strategic ploy, similar to the one when America and Britain deceived their publics into believing that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction (which of course he never had, and of course which they never had any real evidence to believe he had).

Putin has not yet occupied Ukraine and there is not yet any evidence that he intends to “occupy” Ukraine. It is still possible to think (optimistically perhaps) that Putin intends to do what every democratic, liberal, peaceful Western country would have done if a foreign power had placed offensive weapons within a weak state bordering them: a surgical 1-2 months military operation against Ukraine aimed solely at dismantling it from the West's weapons and leaders that threaten Russia's security.

On the other hand, the extreme sanctions of the West against Putin - and, regrettably, the citizens of Russia will naturally lead that country's leadership to a situation where it has nothing to lose. In turn, this may provoke Putin into an extreme, unpredictable and not necessarily rational counter-reaction.

In such a scenario it could very well be that Putin's attack on Ukraine could go far beyond the specific needs of neutralizing weapons that threaten Moscow or protecting Russian minorities from Ukrainian mis-rule.

In other words, Ukraine may suffer the most from Putin's counter-reaction to the extreme sanctions imposed on him by Western countries, and from the West's use of Ukrainian territory to place strike weapons targeted against Moscow.

Because when there are two elephants fighting, what gets trampled is the grass.

The USA would do the same if Putin armed Cuba, Venezuela or Hungary with Russian ballistic weapons. The UK would do the same if Ireland got itself fitted out with Russian or Chinese nuclear arsenal.

Wars are never good; a war between superpowers is a danger to the whole world. Russia is not Iraq, not Afghanistan and not Vietnam. Russia is a global military power. Western armies are powerful but not smart (they can easily kill millions and destroy countries, but they cannot neutralize their real enemy). They can damage but not protect. The wars they lost expensively in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq had justifications that were at best dubious, and outcomes that were at the state level terribly embarrassing, and at the personal level lethally effective. Neither will succeed in convincing too many mothers to send their children to be killed just to ensure that the arms and energy companies in the United States and Britain get even richer.

(From a selfish, superficial perspective, my problem is that the three things I like most in the Ukraine are: the talent of their programmers; the beauty of their girls; and the way they cook my favorite Russian food. I like a lot more things in America and the UK - though not the boring and fattening food; not their lazy and square programmers; and not the vocal minority of women who get upset when a gentleman treats them with adoration and respect because they (we) think women are different and better than men and not identical or equal to them.)

So my concern is that the West's need for war - through the usual fictitious excuse of rescuing some weak country from ghosts and witches - will severely damage Ukraine and destroy its economy, society and the 30-year progress it has made. That, just as they completely destroyed Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan, they will make the people of Ukraine less free, less rich and much less happy than they were under their previous and imperfect administration.

The whole world must be united around Ukraine's right to be independent. To be independent from both Russian and Western dictatorships. The world must also be fair and reasonable about Russia's demands that the West must not place offensive weapons on Russia's borders that jeopardize Russia's security and independence. Above all, the whole world - all countries - must be united in ensuring that we do not end up taking sides in another destructive and unnecessary war - one which the West will again lose at huge cost. At similar cost to blood and treasure for the United States, Britain and their allies when they failed abjectly and lost their wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya - not including the tragic and immense cost to the unfortunate countries hosting the unwarranted military incursions.

No one should risk their lives just to make the oil and military industries richer. A war should be against the real enemy of the peoples of the world . And these real and only enemies are our divided societies, untrusted mainstream media, corrupt and useless political systems and unfair distribution of wealth.

Einstein once said that "insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result". Causing disaster in other countries will not solve the disastrous status of our society, economy and politics. Another war will compound the problem, not provide the solution. It is time for us to understand that our Western countries need to try a different tactic.


Epilogue:

One problem solved: the Nord Stream 2 project has been stopped. That's a big win for Biden and Johnson.

The only elephant left in the room is: how to make sure Putin does not support Donald Trump in the next election. For Biden - Everything else is secondary.
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